Hold your ground

As long as Republicans hold their ground on the current budget debate, they can't lose. Consider the options:

1. Republicans hold their ground, the Democrats refuse to yield, and the U.S. defaults. To be sure, this is a bad scenario for the U.S. But it's hard to see where it hurts the Republicans - as long as they stay on message. Last November, the American people overwhelmingly voted in favour of the Republican plan for the budget. Not only is the Republican base fired up about this, but millions of people who voted for Obama in 2008 voted against his policies in 2010. If Obama refuses to acknowledge their will and plunges the U.S. into a deeper financial crisis, do you think that makes them more or less likely to support him in 2012?

2. Republicans hold their ground and the Democrats cave. Not only would this be a huge political victory for the Republicans (and proof that they already have significant power in Washington - even before thrashing the Democrats in 2012), but the country would be on the road to recovery.

3. Republicans hold their ground and Obama invokes some mangled interpretation of the 14th Amendment in order to unilaterally raise the debt ceiling. This is easily the best outcome (politically) for the Republicans even though it would be horrific for the country. Under this scenario, there is no fall-out for the Republicans at all. When Obama's insane spending binge continues unabated, plunging the country further into financial doom, the Republicans can keep reminding the public that they tried to stop him and it was only Obama's Chicago-style thuggery that allowed him to push America further down the road to ruin. Moreover, Obama will be giving Republicans a huge weapon to use against him: they can keep pointing that, as with Obamacare, Obama's socialist agenda always - ALWAYS - takes precedence over the will of the American people.

The only way Republicans lose is if:

4. Republicans cave to Obama, showing that they are too weak to deal with a tyrant and that they, like Obama, are not concerned with the express will of the American people.