In case you're interested, the IEM isn't looking very good for Kerry. Although it was close for a while, the past month has shown Bush pulling away steadily. At the moment they give Kerry a slight lead in the "will win the popular vote but have less that 52% of the two-party vote". Which might sound good except for the fact that the only reason Bush's numbers are so low on that one is that pretty much everyone thinks Bush will win with more than 52% of the two-party vote. These guys are playing by choice and with real money, so in theory their opinions are a little more carefully considered than the typical respondent to a poll.
Still, Time or CNN or the New York Times might want to take this opportunity to run a report headlined: "Kerry slightly more likely than Bush to win election with less that 52% of the two-party vote."
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